The Upcoming Challenges to the U.S. Workforce

By Brian D’Arcy, Business Manager, Local 18

As discussed in a recent Surge, our country—and its workforce—are changing. We are changing in ways that we could not have anticipated just a generation ago. We are living in an exciting, challenging and very different era, one in which the characteristics and factors that divided us now stand to be unifying forces. More than ever, we are realizing that we “all are in this together,” that our society will succeed or fail as we work together, irrespective of the old racial, cultural and ethnic divides that used to mark us.

With this in mind, and remembering how the face of the U.S. truly is changing, let us examine how these changes are presenting new challenges for us, as working people and families. What are these challenges, and how will we meet them? In the answers, lies the future of American men and women on the job.

In sum, our changing workforce (and population) demands that we:

• Transfer jobs to a new generation of working men and women
• Understand that the new workplace is a global reality—no longer just a domestic realm
• Produce more skilled workers for more high-tech, skilled jobs
• Accept and integrate a more diverse workforce
• Provide the essentials of better education and job training

How we respond to these demands brought about by a changing workforce will determine:

• The quality of life in the United States for working people and families
• Our ability, as a country, to compete in the interrelated, interlocking global economy
• Our national economic, societal and political security and agenda

Education, Education, Education!

The new job-growth phenomenon is rather specific: most of the new—and best—employment opportunities will require some level of higher education and/or training. The reliable stand-by for generations, the high school diploma, simply will not cut it for most of the desirable, better-paying jobs of today and tomorrow. Yes, there will still be a range of skilled, semi-skilled and unskilled jobs available to people with just high school degrees. The question is, though, are these the kind of jobs you would want, or want for your children?

Even more important, will such jobs continue to be available, as the workforce and the career options open to it continue to become more specialized, high-tech and higher education-oriented?

Recent statistics bear out this point, highlighting employment change by education between 1992 – 2002: if one had less than, or only a high school education, good job opportunities declined by nearly four million. But the more post-high education one had, the more job/career opportunities became available: with some college, 2.4 million jobs; with two years of college, another 2.2 million jobs; with two years of technical training, another 2.6 million jobs, and with a four-year college degree, some 6.4 million new jobs.

Between 1980 and 2000, there was a nearly 20% increase in working people with post-high school education. Between 2000 and 2020, it is estimated that there will be only a 4% increase in working people with post-high school education. This disparity seems to suggest that since more and more young people are going beyond a high school education, the percentage growth in the workforce of these people is becoming flatter.

There is, of course, a relationship between the need—and growth—of higher education and the continuing problem of youthful unemployment. For example, as of last November, the national unemployment rate among young people was 15.5% Within that figure, Anglo unemployment was at 14.2%, African-American at 27.2%, and Hispanic at 18%. Clearly, the more education one receives, the better one’s chances are for meaningful employment.

Bearing out these statistics even more starkly, we find that as of 2000, across the country, 7% of Anglo students, 11% of African-American, and 38% of Hispanic students did not complete high school. This highlights an inescapable reality: high school dropout rates most impact the segments of our society that are growing the fastest. This is producing an unfortunate paradox: the national population groups that will have the most people in the years to come are those whose educational levels are—today—the weakest.

Education matters! A lack of education more often than not equates to unemployment. As of December, 2003, if one had less than a high school diploma, the joblessness rate stood at 8.1%. With a high school degree, unemployment stood at 5.5%. With some college education, the rate fell to 4.5%. And, predictably enough, if one had a college degree or even more education, the joblessness rate for that group of people was a much lower 3.0%.

It is not just the relationship between education and unemployment, either; education levels and salaries also rise hand-in-hand. In 1999 dollars, someone without a high school diploma earned, on the average, $18,900/year. With a high school degree, about $25,900/year. With a certificate from a vocational school, the average salary jumps to $30,000/year. With some college education, that figure rises to $31,200/year. With just a two-year college degree, the average salary is at around $33,000/year. Of course, with a full four-year degree and/or post-graduate education, the average salary jumps up dramatically.

Trends and Training

A recent conference on Trends in Training and Education, attendees learned more about some of the challenges ahead concerning education, jobs and the changing American workforce. There are four general kinds of trends that are forcing change and shaping our future. They are: demographic, social, economic and technological. Within each category are sub-classifications.

Demographic – the make-up of our population/workforce. Trends here include: increased diversity (racial, ethnic, cultural); lower birth rates; a generally aging society; immigration, and a pending shortage of available labor. Concerning this last sub-group, by 2010, it is estimated that there will be some 167,754,000 jobs available with “only” 157,721,000 working men and women to fill them. This means that the national labor force will be lacking more than 10 million people.

Social – educational and family factors. Educational levels for job-entry will change, generally meaning that qualifications will be stiffer. Licensing and certification will become more the rule than the exception. Educational opportunities are changing as people study more on-line and at “corporate universities” (job-related and sponsored education). Families, too, are changing; on the job, for example, this means more women are in the workforce, at all levels.

Economic – job availability, location and kinds of production/services. As noted in the last piece, and as is apparent to all of us, the global economy is both here to stay and a decisive factor in production and services. Secondly, as they say in the real estate business, “location, location, location.” The available—and future—labor pool is adjusting, and will continue to do so, to corporate relocation, job outsourcing (often overseas) and other extra-national conditions.

Technology – high-tech jobs and ways of training for them and doing them. In the future, fewer and fewer people will “go to the office,” “go to the plant,” or even commute to any other kind of work. Telecommuting is an increasing work factor; we work at home and communicate by phone, fax or e-mail. Similarly, education is becoming more of an at-home experience through the internet. Finally, the internet itself has become a vastly popular work tool, and this will only increase in the years to come.

What do these general and specific trends mean with respect to professional education and training? The implications are significant and varied, and they include:

• Strategic Planning: employers, large and small, are taking a comprehensive, company- (or profession-wide) approach to workforce education and training. They have a clear mission (getting the best workforce), a vision (incorporating values and attainable goals), a thought-out strategy that will get them to their goal, and an on-going method of monitoring their results.

• Focus on Learning: the overall goal is student/employee learning. With this in mind, any entity will focus on two factors: 1) how does our action (education and training) improve and expand learning and ability, and 2) how do we know our action improves and expands learning —in other words, accountability.

• Core competencies. Newly trained employees, whatever their length of service, have to master some basic abilities: communication (both internal and external); problem-solving methods and teamwork; viewing the interlocked global economy and its impact on one’s profession and career; integrating a sense of social responsibility into one’s work; working with, and understanding, cultural diversity, and personal management and improvement.

• Diversity. America (and especially California and Southern California) is becoming increasingly diverse, both as a population and as a workforce. More and more we are becoming a true ethnic and cultural melting pot. People are living longer, so that many professions may now span three generations of employees. Our lifestyles, health and the futures of our careers and families are permanently tied up in the global economy. These continuing changes mean that some workforces must be re-trained, often with new teaching tools and methods, and that educational/training curricula must be adapted to the needs of our changing workforce and industries.

• Technology. High-tech, constantly changing (and upgrading) technology is permanently altering our manufacturing, service industries and all professions. With that comes the need for a more technology-savvy student force and workforce. Technology is the tool with which we are revolutionizing national and global society. Technical training—both in the class and on-line—is exploding everywhere as more and more people realize that without it their career possibilities—and earning power—are severely curtailed.

The professional, educational and societal challenges facing us at the beginning of the 21st Century are serious, broad—and surmountable—if we realize our interdependence, as people, as workers, as nations, and pitch in together to work towards the best and most productive we all can be.

In unity,

BRIAN D’ARCY, Business Manager